Saturday, February 10, 2007

Finance 101 - Markets are NOT efficient...

One of my famous pet peeves is that - contrary to prevailing academic opinion - markets are not efficient. Kahneman and Tversky are far more "in the money" than Sharpe could ever hope to be... (witness the dismal failure of Long Term Capital Management and the ensuing bailout...)

In my own investing as well as in the finance classes I teach I've taken a "nishtahin nishtaher" approach - i.e. neither here nor there, but rather as a compromise which allows the century long battle between fundamentalists and technical analysts to subside into something manageable. One must carefully analyze the fundamentals - yet make trading decisions based on the basic precepts of technical analysis. Why? Because technical analysis reflects the psychology of the market.

I was glad to come across a series of articles from Investopedia that serve to support my own theory; they are:

Brumley (2006) What can traders learn from investors?

Brumley (2006) What can investors learn from traders?

and...

Vonko (2006) Fundamental analysis for Traders.

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